Richard Wobbekind, one of my favorite economists, who is with the Colorado Leeds School of business, is predicting that Colorado will have slow steady growth in 2012. We are not going to see robust growth, but we are going to see growth. The construction industry which has seen a decline in employment over the last four years is poised to add 2,900 jobs next year.
Wobbekind does caution in the article in the Daily Camera, that if something drastic happens in Europe that throws our stock market into a tail spin all bets are off and we could have rough roads ahead.
The current numbers and job growth are running parallel to what occurred during the 2001 downturn according to Wobbekind. If we continue to follow the same growth path we should see slow growth in 2012 and start to pick up steam in 2013 and 2014. You can read the full article at www.dailycamera.com.
The numbers from the real estate side also help to support Wobbekind’s assessment. In 2009 we saw our peak in foreclosure filings peaking out at over 450 units in one quarter, we have fallen back to 2006 levels of about 200 units per a quarter. For all markets, other than Erie, we have units sold increase since 2009. Erie numbers also look like they will turn the corner in 2012 purely from a trending curve perspective.
So what should you expect in 2012? Slow and steady my friends.