Economics seem to rule the roost these days. As such, there always appears to be some degree of drama attached to them. Economics are the core issue when it comes to mortgage interest rates fluctuating up and down, the stock market typifying a roller coaster or the government shutting down because the political parties can’t agree on what to do.
Buying and selling real estate is an economic decision. If a seller decides to sell their home, what is the economic impact to them? What are the economic options left if they do sell? For a buyer, deciding what to buy is based to a great degree on their economic situation. How much can they afford? What is the economic bearing on their financial state?
The 2013 Boulder Valley housing market has been a year characterized by economics. On average, home values have increased across the area in most price ranges. Mortgage interest rates have vacillated between 3.5% and 4.5%, still residing at near historic levels. Buyers have outnumbered sellers, with available resale inventory struggling to keep pace with demand and new home construction continuing to be a viable part of the overall market. The economic scene across the Boulder Valley has shifted noticeably over the past nearly two years from the previous seven years when bank foreclosures and short sales, and depreciating property values were more the norm.
Below is a brief overview of the activity level for single family homes in a number of the Boulder Valley areas through September/2013, courtesy of IRES, the Northern Colorado MLS.Area Active Listings Solds Y.T.D. Absorption Rate
Boulder County 1118 2766 110 Days
Larimer County 1999 4331 126 Days
Weld County 1414 3148 122 Days
Boulder 351 844 113 Days
Erie 113 315 98 Days
Lafayette 75 257 80 Days
Longmont 370 1028 98 Days
Louisville 43 183 64 Days
Suburban Mountains 270 246 299 Days
Suburban Plains 239 464 140 Days
Superior 31 114 74 Days
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Community Totals: 1492 3451 118 Days
The Absorption Rate is the length of time it would take for the existing inventory to sell assuming the same rate of sales activity and no new inventory coming on the market.
In September/2012, Community Totals were 1774 (active listings), 3038 (sold listings) and 160 days (absorption rate). The Boulder Valley market has experienced a 16% decrease in active listings, 13.5% increase in sold listings, and 24% decrease in the Absorption Rate year over year.
Look for the balance of 2013 and moving into 2014 to mirror what is happening now in the local housing market. Mortgage interest rates should reside in the 4%+ range, home sales and available inventory will normally trend down as fall turns to winter.
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